Air Quality Forecasting - also refered as 'Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling' (wikipedia) is the art of simulating how air pollutants (eg PM_2.5 or Ozone) disperse is the ambient atmosphere. The result of the simulation gives the ambient concentration for each air pollutants, from which the Air Quality Index can be calculated.

There are dozens of dispertion models, and many universities and institutions arround the world are running one or several of them for different regions (eg Europe, Continental US, Asia ...). Below is the a non-exaustive and selected list of few models which are beeing used for providing Air Quality forecast on the "World Air Quality Index" project.

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You can click on any of the forecast map to see the real-time forecast animation, as well as the model efficiency analysis.

SPRINTARS Asia
Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species

SPRINTARS East Asia
Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species

MPIM China
Max Planck Institut fur Meteorologie

SILAM Asia
System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition

CAMS Asia / Panda
Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service NRT

CAMS Europe
Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service NRT

EMEP Europe
European Monitoring and Evaluation Program

CAMS World
Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service NRT

SILAM World
System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition

NGAC
NOAA NEMS GFS Aerosol Component

GFS
Global Forecast System

NCEP EMP AQM
Air Quality Model (AQM) Product

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Please note that all above analysis are done on the World Air Quality Index (WAQI) project own budget.
We did not receive any subsidies from any of the intuitions publishing Air Quality forecast models.

Detailled Air Quality Forecast is available for more than 600 cities: Or just pick any of those cities: 北京, 上海, 成都, 瀋陽, 深セン市, 広州, チンタオ, 西安, 天津, 埼玉県, 京都市, 大阪市, ソウル特別市, 釜山広域市, ボゴタ, デリー, ジャカルタ, Ulaanbaatar, ハノイ, チェンナイ, コルカタ, ムンバイ, ハイデラバード, サンティアゴ, リマ, サンパウロ, キト, シンガポール, クアラルンプール, イポー, Perai, ミリ, ニューヨーク, Seattle, シカゴ, ボストン, Atlanta.

This forecasting model, and all AQFS which it is based on, are research products intended to provide information related to Air Quality forecast. All reasonable measures have been taken to ensure its quality and accuracy. However:

• We do not make warranty, express or implied, nor assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, correctness, completeness of the information.
• We do not assume any legal liability or responsibility for any damage or loss that may directly or indirectly result from any information contained on this website or any actions taken as a result of the content of this website;
• We may change, delete, add to, or otherwise amend information contained on this website without notice

For more information about the underlying concepts of Air Quality forecasting (or Atmospheric Dispertion Modeling), check the article on a visual study of wind impact of PM_2.5 concentration.

The above prediction is based on composite meta model, computed using several Air Quality Forecasting Systems (AQFS):

• The Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species (Sprintars) model from Kyushu University.
• The China National Air Quality forecast by Zhejiang Experts in Experimental Sciences (PM2.5科学实验专家小组).
• The Air Korea Air Quality forecast, by the Korean Integrated Air Quality forecast center(대기질 통합예보센터).
• The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) near-realtime surface ensemble forecast , by the ECMWF.
• The System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) by the FMI.
• The Max Planck Institut fur Meteorologie (MPIM) model.
• The Ozone Air Quality Model (AQM) by the NOAA/NCEP.
• The Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) model from the Government of Canada.
• The irCELine (Belgian Interregional Environment Agency) for the Belgian Regions.
• The LCSQA (Laboratoire Central de Surveillance de la Qualité de l’Air) for France.
• The RIVM (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu) for the Netherlands.
• The SILAM (System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition) for Northen Europe.
• The EURAD (EURopean Air Pollution Dispersion) for Central Europe.

The above map is based on the PM_2.5 surface level modeling, and colors are following the US EPA AQI standard.

大気汚染レベルについて

指数	大気質指数の分類(米国）	健康影響 / カテゴリ	粒子状物質(PM10,PM2.5)
0 - 50	良い - Good	通常の活動が可能	なし
51 -100	並 - Moderate	特に敏感な者は、長時間又は激しい屋外活動の減少を検討	非常に敏感な人は、長時間または激しい活動を減らすよう検討する必要がある。
101-150	敏感なグループにとっては健康に良くない - Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	心臓・肺疾患患者、高齢者及び子供は、長時間又は激しい屋外活動を減少	心疾患や肺疾患を持つ人、高齢者、子供は、長時間または激しい活動を減らす必要がある。
151-200	健康に良くない - Unhealthy	上記の者は、長時間又は激しい屋外活動を中止 すべての者は、長時間又は激しい屋外活動を減少	心疾患や肺疾患を持つ人、高齢者、子供は、長時間または激しい活動を中止する必要がある。それ以外の人でも、長時間または激しい活動を減らす必要がある。
201-300	極めて健康に良くない - Very Unhealthy	上記の者は、すべての屋外活動を中止 すべての者は、長時間又は激しい屋外活動を中止	心疾患や肺疾患を持つ人、高齢者、子供は、全ての屋外活動を中止する必要がある。それ以外の人でも、長時間または激しい活動を中止する必要がある。
300+	危険 - Hazardous	上記の者は、屋内に留まり、体力消耗を避ける すべての者は、屋外活動を中止	全ての人が屋外活動を中止する必要がある。特に、心疾患や肺疾患を持つ人、高齢者、子供は、屋内に留まって激しい活動を避け静かに過ごす必要がある。

(Reference: see wikipedia, and cn.emb-japan.go.jp/)

大気汚染についての更なる詳細をお知りになりたい方は、WikipediaやAirNowを参照してください。

北京在住の医師Richard Saint Cyr氏による大変役に立つ健康上のアドバイスは、 www.myhealthbeijing.com をご覧ください。